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Hurricane information for the Eastern Caribbean islands

April 2017:

Klotzbach and team of Colorado State University forecast that the 2017 season will be a slightly below average hurricane season namely 11 named  tropical storms, (12 is normal), 4 of which will become hurricanes (6 is normal) and  they predict all will become major hurricanes (of category 3 to 5 severity).
This forecast was before out of season storm Arlene in April 2017 in the Atlantic, nobody would have known about that one were it not for satellite imagery and ships reports. Here etween Bequia and Grenada we did have a bit of swell which was unusual, so even we noticed!
Chance of a hurricane moving into the Caribbean is 34%, normal is 42%.

April 2014:

Klotzbach and Gray of Colorado State University forecast that the 2014 season will see ONLY 9 named Atlantic tropical storms, 3 of which will become hurricanes and 1 of which they predict will become a major hurricane (of category 3 to 5 severity). Chance of a hurricane moving into the Caribbean is 38%, normal is 42%.

 

July 3rd 2014: Lets hope they are right this time, as of writing this though we have the first hurricane already, Arthur going to North Carolina!

Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year.




The hurricane season is from the 1st of June till the 1st of December, I repeat this from the weather page because:
The weather: Our most frequently asked question is: so how much will it rain, and what is the chance of hurricanes? Well, we can't tell you that, but we can give you the general idea:
Approximately every three days a tropical wave will form off the coast of Africa. These tropical waves are small fronts which will bring cloudiness and showers for a day. Depending on how strong the wave is, it could rain for two hours continuously, or you may get an occasional shower during the day with partly cloudy skies.
The tropical waves have the potential to develop into tropical depressions, meaning guaranteed cloudy skies and rain. 
The tropical depressions have the potential to develop into tropical storms, packing winds of over 35 knots. 
When the wind is over 65 knots the system will be called a hurricane. There will be plenty of warning when a hurricane is threatening to approach the island chain, you will know at least three days in advance that a system is coming. 
For tropical weather updates including updated satellite imagery our preferred weather station is Weather Underground. It is free, and easy to use. We'll include the link below, when you reach the page visit this link for a satellite image, and this one for a detailed description. The main page is:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/



The good news: St. Vincent and the Grenadines is located at the Southern edge of the hurricane belt. The last time a hurricane passed directly over the Grenadines was in 1955. Hurricanes from Africa usually have a much more Northerly destination.
St. Martin and the Virgin Islands used to be the worst hit in recent times. In 2004 and 2005 Grenada for some reason got hit by Ivan and Emily. As the hurricanes continue Florida and the Carolinas could be badly affected as well.
When a hurricane passes North of us, the weather here is absolutely gorgeous, as it will draw all the moisture away from us. We'll have exceptionally clear blue skies and a visibility of 50 miles!



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